Intellectual
Decision frameworks
A long read
Your gut has a blind spot
Your guess
You start a small home project. You guess it takes one weekend. How long do projects like it usually take?
Your brain is good at many things. Guessing the future is not one of them. It tends to think plans will go fast, cost little, and go smoothly.
Researchers call this the planning fallacy. We see it again and again.
planning fallacy
Our habit of guessing a plan will take less time, money, and risk than it really does.
Sources
- Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
- Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets (2018)
- Jeff Bezos, 2015 letter to Amazon shareholders
- Gary Klein, Harvard Business Review (2007)
- Econlib, “Opportunity Cost”